Armenia is increasingly making attacks on Russia: who is inciting a new conflict in Transcaucasia?

The head of Armenia Pashinyan said that Armenia can no longer rely on Russia as an ally

Photo: REUTERS

Things have been coming out of Yerevan lately that are unpleasant for Moscow. Then the Armenian leadership speaks of the uselessness of the CSTO and recalls its representative. They argue that the decisions of the International Criminal Court may be legal for them. And then, through the mouth of their prime minister, they report that the Russians did not fulfill their allied duty towards this proud Transcaucasian republic, did not protect it.

On Radio “Komsomolskaya Pravda” discussed the topic with the Head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts Andrey Klintsevich.

– Head of Armenia Pashinyan in an interview with the publication Politico stated that Armenia can no longer rely on Russia as an ally in terms of ensuring its security. And now they are conducting exercises with the Americans in Transcaucasia. Maybe we should have fit in when the mess began in Karabakh in 2020?

– I was immersed in these negotiations and participated in the Russia-Armenia-Azerbaijan trilateral meeting. I saw the first 11 meetings from the inside. I felt like we were coming to an agreement. This was the development of the meeting of the three presidents, which influenced all subsequent events. And to stop the conflict. This is in reference to the Armenian leader’s assertions that Russia is not saving them. So, Baku is also an important ally for us, including in logistics. Our task is not to “fit into” conflicts, but to stop them. Which is exactly what happened. No dialogue – no solution to the conflict.

– Were there many controversial issues?

– Very. Many Azerbaijani territories were occupied by Armenians after the first phases of the conflict. There were plenty of other problems too.

– Three years have passed, and now we hear anti-Russian statements from the head of a CSTO member country.

– In the region there is a difficult tangle of six countries that have one or another claims against each other. This is not only about mutual reproaches between Yerevan and Baku. Their neighbors, Tbilisi, Ankara, Tehran, and, well, Moscow also have questions. And since many claims are justified, it is impossible to do without certain concessions. At some point, the Armenian side refused negotiations, which is largely why the armed conflict occurred.

Andrey Klintsevich

Photo: Personal page of the publication’s hero on the social network

– Stopped with the help of Russia?

– Yes. Then two tripartite groups were created at the level of deputy prime ministers, which made operational decisions and reported to the presidents on this set of issues: border delimitation – there are many disputed villages there, and unblocking transport links in the South Caucasus. Restoration of the Soviet railway and highway system. It is important for Yerevan to maintain access to Nagorno-Karabakh. And for Baku it is important to gain direct access to Nakhichevan. To their enclave, from which the presidential Aliyev clan comes. And this route through the Azerbaijani city of Garadiz was the basis of the agreements. 45 kilometers along the Araks River. Traffic there had to be restored, and the Armenian side did not spend money on restoration. The Azerbaijani side participated. And the Russian side, as the main holder of the assets of the South Caucasian railways, was supposed to build a road there. But, having lost the diplomatic option for the development of this story, the Azerbaijani side began to block the transport corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh – in order to encourage Armenia to meet halfway.

– What does this all mean?

– If the parties do not talk and agree, then this is the possibility of a new conflict. And Russia, as a third party, will not be able to stop them. Moreover, Armenia declares some kind of revenge.

– How will it look like?

“They believe that before they were poorly prepared for the conflict, but now they have purchased weapons all over the world. And we are ready to take on some challenge again.

– Who benefits from this?

– To the Americans. They are not interested in the situation calming down in this region. Georgia’s participation in the trilateral group, which included three deputy prime ministers and six foreign ministers of all countries in the region, was blocked. From overseas they told her directly: you will not participate in the negotiations. The United States now sees an opportunity to influence the situation through Armenia and reignite the conflict there. Involve the Turks and Iranians, and some other parties, in it. And try to discredit the CSTO by saying: well, look, Armenia is at war, but no help is being provided to it.

Yerevan does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh!

Photo: EAST NEWS

– Are there only advantages for Americans?

– For now, yes. And their largest embassy of 1000 people is located there for a reason.

– Is it true that Baku initially agreed not to all of Nagorno-Karabakh, but to part of it?

– Our group dealt with logistics; we did not discuss territorial issues.

– Is it possible for Turkey to participate in a military conflict?

– You will be surprised, but Nagorno-Karabakh is secondary in this situation. Many people think that this was the main stumbling block – but no. For Baku, access to Nakhichevan is primary. Baku has already spent money and built a railway and road to the border with Armenia. For now, they only have access through Iran. There are also many questions about the areas in the north of present-day Armenia captured as a result of the first war. There are gold mines there.

– And what will happen to Karabakh in the end?

– Yerevan doesn’t recognize Nagorno-Karabakh either! In the same vein as, for example, Moscow recognizes Abkhazia or South Ossetia.

– Why didn’t you recognize it?

– I don’t quite understand their position. They have it like a pendulum. After all, the three presidents agreed – no, Pashinyan is going to the EU, involving Macron. Maybe they think that the more leverage, the better? But Armenia is very dependent on Russia economically. And it is part of the Eurasian Economic Union. We have a lot of investments there. They are actually in a circle of unfriends. The only one who supports Yerevan is Moscow. And they are engaged in diplomatic escapades, such as recalling a representative from the CSTO or sending a document recognizing the decisions of the International Criminal Court to parliament for ratification.

When Pashinyan and Co. start having new problems, they will come running to us again

Photo: EAST NEWS

– If the conflict again takes on heated forms, will we intervene this time?

“I hope we will take a balanced position and act as peacemakers.”

– If they leave the CSTO, should we actually not interfere?

– By the way, yes. But when Pashinyan and Co. start having new problems, they will come running to us again. And we will have to bring them back to the negotiating table.

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