“The Central Bank is looking at three-month inflation; as soon as we see a sustained decline in prices that is not associated with temporary effects, the Central Bank will begin to reduce the rate,” explains Konygin. In his opinion, this is more likely in the second half of 2024. The head of the analytical department of the Ricom-Trust investment company, Oleg Abelev, also says that the Central Bank will most likely move on to easing monetary conditions at the end of the first or beginning of the second half of the year. But by the end of the year the rate will still remain double-digit – around 11-11.5%, the expert adds. Konygin’s forecast for the key rate at the end of the year is 13−13.5%.