From October 1, the ruble exchange rate will enter a new range: How much will the dollar cost and what do economists expect | September 22, 2023

From October 1, the ruble exchange rate will enter a new range: How much the dollar will cost and what economists expect.

In the summer, the ruble exchange rate began to fall so rapidly that the Central Bank took emergency measures. On August 15, the regulator raised the key rate by 3.5 percentage points to 12 percent. Exactly a month later, the Central Bank increased it again. Now the key rate is 13 percent. It is very likely that this is not the limit and in October the regulator will raise it again. However, much will depend on how the ruble exchange rate behaves in early October. At this time, a turning point may occur in the foreign exchange market.

The dollar is in a trading range from 92.50 to 101.00 rubles. The upper limit of this corridor may remain until the next meeting of the Central Bank, which will take place on October 27. Ruble now receives support from high oil prices and the recent increase in the key rate to 13% per annum. This so far covers geopolitical risks and keeps the ruble from weakening significantly. This is how BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov described the situation on the market.

According to his estimates, there are now no threats to a sharp weakening of the ruble. Support is increasing daily from exporters who need to pay taxes on September 28th.

There are no specific solutions at the moment, but the fear of currency restrictions is clearly present. Until the situation with this issue becomes clearer, the ruble will remain at current levels. And by the end of September it may even strengthen to 94-94.5 against the backdrop of the tax period, which is already beginning and will last until the 28th. This forecast was made by Nikolai Vavilov.

— Today, currency futures are expiring (the futures contracts expire and the parties are settling according to their terms). After this, the technical aspect will no longer affect the ruble exchange rate. Only the fundamental will matter. Based on a combination of factors, we expect the ruble to strengthen, and restrictive measures by the authorities may contribute to this. The nearest benchmark is 92.5 per dollar, and by the end of autumn we won’t be surprised at 90,” said Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments.

Tightening fiscal and monetary policies will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble only in combination with stricter foreign exchange controls. After all, if the outflow of capital through friendly countries is not stopped, the first part of the measures simply will not make sense. And the government, together with the Central Bank, is already working on this. This opinion was expressed by a private investor, founder of the School of Practical Investment, Ivan Fedorov.

According to him, the transformation of currency regulation has already begun — we just have to wait for its first effect. In addition, increasing the volume of non-resource exports from Russia could help: then companies would become more active in selling foreign currency earnings on the domestic market. As for the forecast, by the beginning of October the exchange rate will be in the following corridor: about 97 rubles per dollar, up to 103 rubles per euro and the yuan at 13.5 rubles.

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