“The ruble is now strengthening and may strengthen further,” he said. “But in general, you shouldn’t count on any drastic deviations of the ruble exchange rate from the current equilibrium values.”
Answering the question of what explains the sharp fall in the ruble exchange rate this year after strengthening in 2022, Oreshkin explained that domestic demand has resumed in Russia. “If you look at the latest data for the third quarter, retail trade turnover in real terms increased by 11.3%,” Oreshkin noted. According to him, in September this figure was 12.2%, and investments in the second quarter reached 12.6%.
“It is clear that this recovery in consumer and investment demand led to an increase in demand for imported products,” he said.
Oreshkin added that at the same time this year, oil and gas prices were lower than they were in 2022. The assistant to the President of the Russian Federation clarified that against this background, the ruble exchange rate has adjusted.
Oreshkin noted that there was a certain “overshoot” in the course. He associated this phenomenon with the repayment of part of external debts by exporters, the need to increase financing for buyers of Russian products abroad, as well as with the departure of foreign companies from the Russian market and the purchase of their shares by Russian investors.
“All this taken together increased the demand for foreign currency and led to a weakening of the ruble,” the presidential aide emphasized. “Now we see that these temporary capital outflows are beginning to decline. The balance of payments is stabilizing. And the ruble is now showing a tendency to strengthen.”