Strengthening the ruble contributes to the influx of foreign exchange earnings from exporters in the context of tightening foreign exchange controls and high oil prices, as well as stabilization of the balance of payments, the analyst explained.
“The Bank of Russia tentatively estimated the current account in October at $11.2 billion ($11.4 billion in September), which reflects increased currency flows into the country after contracting in the summer and is a positive factor for the national currency,” she noted.
At the same time, the ruble is supported by tightening monetary policy and a gradual cooling of domestic demand amid rising inflation.
At the same time, further movement of the ruble will be negative for the country’s economy, because a stronger ruble reduces the competitiveness of Russian products on world markets in the segment of mining, chemical and metallurgical production, and agricultural products. This is due to the fact that a significant proportion of the contracts of companies in these industries are for export, and revenues are received in foreign currency.
When asked how she sees the national currency exchange rate in the future, Natalia Pyryeva replied that the dollar will trade in the range of 88 – 93 rubles.
“This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an individual investment recommendation.”