Although after the invasion of Ukraine much of the world – and especially the European Union – has tried to unhook In addition to Russian gas, demand for hydrocarbons, regardless of their origin, continues to increase globally and at a faster pace than supply. So much so that the International Gas Union (IGU) warns that if this trend continues, there could be a supply deficit of up to 22% as early as 2030.

According to the IGU, global gas markets remain at a “fragile balance” due to “limited” supply growth while demand continues to grow uninterruptedly (1.5% in 2023) and is expected to accelerate in 2024 (2.1%). “If demand continues to grow as it has over the past four years without further development of production, a deficit of 22% of global supply is expected by 2030,” the IGU warns in a statement. In addition, they point out that the deficit could be “more pronounced” if demand is stronger.

By market, the one that is increasing its demand the most is the Asian one, which has already gone from 24.1% of the total in 2022 to 24.6% in 2023 and is expected to end 2024 at 25.1%. In addition, the fact that total demand is increasing year-on-year (from 3,992 billion cubic meters to 4,051 billion and is expected to increase again to 4,138 billion this year) means that Asia absorbs a larger percentage of an equally higher number.

Europe, for its part, has somewhat reduced its interest in gas, largely as a result of its dependence on Russia as a supplier. In this interval, the price of gas fluctuated wildly and infected the electricity marketwhich has also seen its prices skyrocket on many occasions. In addition, countries such as Germany depend heavily on the physical connections provided by gas pipelines, which are greatly affected by the sabotage of Nord Stream and the sanctions against Russia, which can now only send its natural gas to Europe by ship. Spain, with six regasification plants, to which El Musel should be added – not connected to the national grid – has become the main re-exporter of gas in the world.

“Energy demand has continued to increase in developed and developing regions,” the organization said. The fact is that before the invasion of Ukraine, gas was seen as the alternative green to much more polluting sources such as coal. In fact, Germany and, to a lesser extent, Spain – hence its regasification potential – have strongly supported this technology, while France has opted for nuclear power, which, beyond the environmental problems caused by its waste, is also considered to be emission-free.

The IGU believes that “it is also crucial to underline the importance of low-CO2 technologies” such as biomethane and hydrogen, as well as carbon capture, storage and use. Regarding hydrogen production, they point out that “although small in scale, it is prepared for rapid growth.” Spain aims to become one of the hubs world’s supply of this gas, which should be used to store energy generated by renewable sources for times when their intermittency does not allow them to be used.

The case of Spain is, in any case, paradoxical. It is true that the country has reduced the use of gas for its electricity generation, but it still depends on combined cycle plants when the system is stressed. It happened, without going any further, in a year in which gas was as much a protagonist as 2022: the heat wave and the problems in the French nuclear park They made gas, which accounted for 24.7% of generation, the first source of national electricity production. So far in 2024 – with months with fewer hours of light to come – the trend is very different, with wind (22.6%), nuclear (19.2%), solar photovoltaic (18.2%) and hydraulic (14%) well above the 11.1% of the combined cycle.

However, this does not mean that Spain no longer needs gas. In fact, so far in 2024, only 20.41% of the gas market demand has corresponded to the electricity sectoralthough in recent years the percentage has been somewhat higher at the end of the year (in 2022 it reached 37.87%). Most of the gas is destined for conventional demand, which is the one that groups together the consumption of homes, businesses and industries.