According to the results of yesterday’s trading, the ruble exchange rate against the dollar came close to 100, and against the euro – 105. This is happening against the backdrop of rising costs of energy resources and a trade balance surplus, the specialist pointed out.
“In our opinion, there are several reasons for such volatility. Firstly, raising the key rate turned out to be not such an effective mechanism against the weakening of the ruble in the absence of carry trade and the corresponding influx of foreign money. Secondly, until the end of the year there is a moratorium on bringing to administrative responsibility for violating currency laws, and in the summer the Ministry of Finance developed a bill to extend it until 2025. At a minimum, such conditions do not support the ruble. There is also a third, short-term factor that immediately affects the weakening of the ruble: this is a ban on the export of Russian petroleum products, which reduces the amount of foreign exchange earnings coming into the country,” he explained.
And if it is impossible to significantly influence the first factor, and the ban on the export of petroleum products will most likely be weakened in one form or another, then a change in the existing situation with capital outflow could change the trend towards a weakening of the ruble, the analyst emphasized.
“At cancellation of concessions In response to currency movements, the ruble may begin to strengthen, in which case it is possible that it will return to the levels of 85 USD/RUB,” concluded Dzhioev.
On October 3, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that there was no cause for concern as the dollar exceeded 100 rubles. He pointed out that it is necessary to get used to living “in the ruble zone” and not feel dependent on the American currency.
In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum, called the situation with the ruble exchange rate manageable and said that he did not see insurmountable difficulties with the national currency.
