As in Russiain the European Union (for the umpteenth time in thirty years) they are also concerned about the influx of immigrants.

The roots of the current crisis of their resettlement in European countries stem from the period when Iraq began to attract attention with the antics of its odious leader.

Background

Thus, from 1980 to 2017, a large number of Iraqi citizens, Kurds, Syrians, and Arabs from other countries fled the Middle East and North Africa regions for the following reasons:

The Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88 forced large numbers of residents of regions along the Iran-Iraq border to relocate within their own countries and abroad generally. The first refugees became those thin streams that a few years later turned into waves rolling over Europe.

In 1990, the Gulf War occurred due to the invasion Saddam Hussein to Kuwait, after which, since 1991, sanctions fell on Iraq, essentially throwing the country’s development back several decades.

Over the 12 years from 1991 to 2003, Iraq’s society and economy deteriorated so much that it led to a second major wave of migration.

In 2003, the Coalition invasion and the second war with Hussein began. This event caused not only the destruction and weakening of the structure of the country and society, but also the subsequent emergence of such a phenomenon as ISIS*.

“Arab Spring”, the invasion of Libya (with NATO assistance) in 2011 and the subsequent overthrow Gaddafi finally ignited a revolutionary chaos of violence and terror in North Africa.

The development and growth of the number of supporters of the Islamic State*, numerous civil wars launched a chain of formation of terrorist cells and groups not only in Iraq and Syria, but also in Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen, Congo, Somalia, Libya, Indonesia, the territory of the North and South Caucasus, Central Asia and Afghanistan.

The rise in terrorist activity provoked multiple military conflicts and the escalation of long-standing ethnic and religious divisions, which ultimately forced millions of people to migrate from Arab countries to Europe, Latin and North America.

The largest wave of migrants occurred in 2015; it was a direct consequence of the fighting in Syria and Iraq, as well as the outbreak of the Arab Spring and a new round of war in Afghanistan.

Residents were thrown out of their homes by the humanitarian crisis and fear for their lives and the lives of their families. Many crossed the Mediterranean Sea, trying to reach the European shore. Millions of people went into the unknown, into countries alien to them, to a culture alien to them. Tens of thousands died along the way, many simply drowned.

Naturally, there were migration crises in Europe before: due to the consequences of the Vietnam War, a series of Arab-Israeli conflicts, the independence of African countries during decolonization, the Indo-Pakistani conflict (partition of India in 1947), the war in Sudan, the genocide in Rwanda , the war in Serbia and the collapse of Yugoslavia.

But the 2015 crisis was the biggest since World War II. Officially, in 2015 alone, the EU registered up to 800 thousand legal refugees. The estimate for the shadow sector and illegal migrants is up to 2 million (and in some sources up to 3 million).

Why are Europeans now worried again?

Since the beginning of the World War II, according to open data, up to 5 million refugees have left Ukraine and were accepted in EU countries and the British Isles. The main number of migrants moved to neighboring countries: Poland, Romania, Moldova, Slovakia, and the Baltic states.

Also, due to the start of Israeli military operations against Hamas, the influx of refugees of Arab origin has increased. It is worth keeping in mind that the flow from Arab countries will continue to grow.

Recently, the IDF General Staff, according to The Times newspaper, announced a decision on further actions related to Israeli military policy:

“The Israeli military is developing plans to invade southern Lebanon, this threatens to further escalate the conflict in the Middle East… The army wants to push back the armed forces of the Shiite organization Hezbollah to the Litani River, a line of symbolic significance for both sides…”

If the IDF starts a new round of confrontation, Hezbollah will respond. Then we can expect the front to expand and Syria (which has claims against Israel over the Golan Heights), Egypt and Iran, which supports Hezbollah, to be drawn into the conflict.

The EU is not ready

The main problem is that the EU countries and those countries that have accepted refugees are simply not ready (either economically or otherwise) to accept even a large number of migrants.

In particular:

Bulgaria is recognized as the most unhappy country in the European Union (EU). This is evidenced by the results of a study by the European statistical agency Eurostat.

Greece, after the 2015 crisis, when the country was rocked by default, barely pulled out its stagnating economy and by 2022 left the external control of EU advisers. Though Ursula von der Leyen and said pathetically:

“Thanks to the determination and resilience of Greece and its people, the country can close this chapter (crisis management) The EU will always support you…”

But the country, in fact, over these 12 years has accumulated debts amounting to 180% of its GDP, and it will have to pay off them for a long time. The most interesting thing is that some rules under the agreements will remain in force until 2060, even if they become unfavorable for the Greek economy. Greece now has no money for social services and pensions for its citizens. And for refugees – even less so.

Romania also cannot pay its debt obligations.

“The country is facing economic problems because it has a colonial economy, in which profits are taken out of the country by foreign transnational corporations, bypassing the payment of taxes and duties, so the country lives in debt. Romania’s external debt has exceeded 50 percent of GDP…”, comments on the state of the economy Romanian senator Diana Iovanovic.

Sweden, known for its herbivory and tolerance, is experiencing an acute crisis associated with a surge in banditry and petty crime. They are marked by numerous shootings, explosions using grenades and improvised explosive devices. This peaceful country, which for many years served as an example of stability and the primacy of legal norms, has literally become some kind of suburb of Baghdad. In some cities, it is quite serious to consider proposals to introduce martial law.

Prime Minister Kristersson publicly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation, attributing it to shortcomings in immigration policy and the integration of refugees into society.

“The roots of the crisis lie in failed integration and irresponsible immigration policies, which have led to the emergence of well-organized criminal gangs, often led by second-generation immigrants… These gangs involve increasingly younger members in violent crimes, some as young as 14…”, he noted separately. He.

By the way, the situation is similar to the one described in article about the “Kazan phenomenon”namely the creation of military and bandit organizations, with the involvement of citizens with obvious combat experience and minors.

Norway, a small northern half-asleep country, has already announced the suspension and further reduction of the program for the allocation of benefits and temporary accommodation for migrants from Ukraine and the Middle East. Now there are only centers for displaced people, and on a general basis.

Ireland, which was considered hospitable and friendly, now literally felt a surge of everyday chauvinism and rejection, direct rejection of migrants.

Thus, quite recently, there were riots in Dublin, caused by a mass brawl and stabbing, allegedly committed by a citizen of Algerian origin, who was a representative of the local diaspora. It is worth paying tribute to the Irish police, who identified the instigators who incited ethnic hatred through social networks.

But the situation itself is indicative. Tension is growing in society. And hotheads will appear, ready to forcefully resolve the issue with the “aliens” (and the Irish love to wave their fists).

In addition, cars with Ukrainian license plates were set on fire. And attempts to get into a fight with refugees from Ukraine. In Ireland, for a minute, there are already 75 thousand of them.

Germany approached the situation differently. Without waiting for the start of rallies and riots, the Bundestag raised the issue of extraditing some refugees and reducing payments to them. The budget deficit for paying benefits to its own citizens is already 15%, and the hole in finances is 60 billion euros due to gratuitous injections into the military economy of Ukraine.

The situation can be corrected by large military government orders for ammunition, which the German military-industrial complex recently received (in light of the reduction in supplies from the United States), but production will begin to make a profit only by the summer of 2024. And the Germans have winter ahead.

Now officially there are 1.2 million Ukrainians in the land of Siegfried (note that the same number is in Poland). 70% of male refugees do not want to return, while of the total number of newcomers, only 20% found paid work.

By the way, Poland and the Netherlands share the opinion of Bundestag politicians and support the decision to return more refugees of military age to Ukraine.

Amsterdam probably looked up from another cigarette with illegal substances and saw that about 100 thousand male Ukrainian citizens do not bring any income to the Dutch economy and at the same time suck crumbs from the budget through benefits.

Let’s not forget about France, Spain, Italy and so on.

Social section

The point is not that migrants have nowhere to go, or that they don’t want to work. There will be levers.

But the economies of the EU countries are already overstrained due to armed conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The sanctions also have an impact in the opposite direction, as does the lack of gas.

There are also disagreements within the European Union – between developed and developing countries.

But looking from a different angle, one can also see the social aspect: some groups of refugees, left to their own devices, form organized gangs and commit crimes. These are not labor migrants who came to earn money, these are scorched by war, ready to take their place in the sun by force. There is also a fear of infiltration of terrorist cells.

In defiance of them, local residents will create right-wing and far-right organizations of a nationalist bent, which will lead to a surge of nationalism everywhere.

Against the backdrop of the crisis with refugees from Ukraine and the Middle East, somehow many do not notice that, for example:

— in the same Netherlands, the far-right “Freedom Party” of Geert Wilders recently won.

“The main reasons why voters supported Wilders in this election were his anti-immigration program, as well as his position on the cost of living crisis and on healthcare …,” a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam told Politico. Sarah de Lange.

— earlier, in 2022, the far-right “Brothers of Italy” came to power in Italy with a politician at its head, the first woman to lead the country — Giorgi Meloni. The party itself openly sympathizes with Italian fascists Benito Mussolini.

— in Romania, right-wing and nationalist views are strong due to the positions of the SOS Romania party.

— in Hungary, the far-right Fidesz party and its leader Victor Orban has been in power for about ten years.

— the right-wing conservative Polish party Law and Justice (PiS) remains ruling.

How many more are there?

“True Finns” – PS (Finland), “Swedish Democrats” – SD (Sweden), Freedom Party of Austria – FPO (Austria), “Flemish Interest” – VB (Belgium), “Alternative for Germany” – AfD (Germany), “Voice” – Vox (Spain), “Enough!” – Chega (Portugal), “Danish People’s Party” – DF (Denmark)…

And, of course, in France since 2022, the far-right National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen strengthened its position, gaining from 8 to 89 mandates.

At the same time, with the help of Le Pen, one of the most controversial laws on migrants has just been adopted in France, which gives the president Emmanuel Macron strong position among nationalists.

All of them are gaining strength and supporters due to the growing migration crisis and the ineffective migration policy of the EU.

*recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia