The analyst predicted a decrease in demand for consumer loans in Russia at the beginning of 2024 | December 30, 2023

He explained that rates on consumer loans are unlikely to decrease after the recent increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

“During this year, despite the constantly tightening monetary policy, Russians’ interest in consumer loans not only did not decrease, but even increased somewhat. The total debt burden of citizens for the year exceeded 30 trillion rubles. Under conditions of economic uncertainty, people are more likely to take irrational actions. However, the number of debtors has also increased – 21 million people have problems with payments. Taking all this into account, I expect a cooling of interest in consumer loans at the beginning of 2024,” Usherovich said.

He admitted that the decline in demand for consumer loans in Russia will last at least until the next Central Bank meeting on February 16, 2024, and if the regulator decides to at least keep the rate at the same level and not raise it, borrower activity may resume.

On December 15, the Central Bank raised the key rate for the fifth time in a row – from 15% to 16% per annum, explaining its decision by inflationary pressure. After this, Russian banks began to raise rates on deposits and loans. According to Financial Services, the average full cost of a loan by December 22 exceeded 26%. Over the year, the PSK increased by 6.5 percentage points, the Izvestia newspaper reported. In January the figure was 19.44%. The PIC includes not only the loan rate, but also additional services, including insurance.

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