Azerbaijan began to gather troops to Karabakh in early September
Photo: EAST NEWS
What is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh?
On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan announced that it had launched a “local anti-terrorist operation” in Karabakh. His army began carrying out targeted strikes with missiles and drones on military targets – air defense, electronic warfare and checkpoints in the region. Whose objects these are is a very interesting question. Because Yerevan immediately declared that there was no Armenian army in Karabakh. But at the same time, the Armenian authorities believe that Azerbaijan has begun “aggression”; there are not only air strikes, but also a ground breakthrough of the contact line for the purpose of “ethnic cleansing.”
Maybe the targets of the armed forces of Karabakh itself were attacked? According to the agreement between Baku and Yerevan after the “second Karabakh war” in 2020, they should not exist. “Destruction of the military infrastructure of the illegitimate regime” was the official reason for the operation, according to the statement of the assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. At the same time, footage of children wounded after Azerbaijani attacks is being published in Stepanakert. Although the internet in the region is mostly shut down.
What about Russian peacekeepers?
There are 2 thousand Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. They must not participate in hostilities on anyone’s side. Their task is to ensure peace and humanitarian corridors in the region. “Our peacekeepers do not have the right to use weapons until their lives are threatened,” explained Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee.
There are 2 thousand Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh
Photo: EAST NEWS
Baku said it had warned Russian peacekeepers about the start of the operation. However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova responded that this warning was only “a few minutes before the missile attacks.”
What preceded the aggravation in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Azerbaijan began to gather troops towards Karabakh in early September. And at that time, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gave interviews in Western media that “he could no longer rely on Russia as the only guarantor of Armenia’s security.” That relying on Moscow in the military sphere was a mistake for Yerevan. Conducted negotiations with French President Macron. Pashinyan’s wife managed to fly to Kyiv for an anti-Russian forum organized by Zelensky. And, as the apotheosis of all this, the Armenian army began joint military exercises with the United States. They’re coming right now! Although the Armenian authorities refused to hold CSTO exercises on their territory this year. That is, the Armenian military has no time for Karabakh right now; they are engaged in maneuvers with the Americans.
And Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was giving interviews to Western media at that time
Photo: REUTERS
In Baku, of course, they could not help but notice the pro-Western drift of the Armenian authorities.
What is Azerbaijan’s interest?
Azerbaijan’s goals on the surface are to take full control of the territory of Karabakh and disarm its army. It seems that this is exactly what Baku is achieving with its “local operation.”
The second task is to build a highway and railway through Armenia to its enclave – Nakhichevan, which is separated from the main territory of Azerbaijan. This path would lead directly to Turkey, which is even more important for Ankara than for Baku. But this goal is unlikely to be achievable right now.
“The anti-terrorist operation has nothing to do with the Armenian territories,” said Hikmet Hajiyev, assistant to the President of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s goals on the surface are to take full control of the territory of Karabakh
Photo: EAST NEWS
What does Armenia want?
Here it is worth separating the desire of the Armenians and the goals of their current authorities. It is clear that the Armenian people would like peace in Karabakh and prosperity in Armenia. The government in Yerevan, judging by its political steps, dreams of getting rid of Karabakh as an unnecessary burden and setting sail to the West. It is no coincidence that Armenian Ambassador-at-Large Edmon Manukyan said: Now it is the US’s turn to decide what measures to take to stop the military attack (of Azerbaijan – Ed.).”
Armenia is now too weak militarily
Photo: EAST NEWS
Will it come to a big war in Nagorno-Karabakh?
This is not in the interests of any of the parties to the conflict now. Except, perhaps, one – the USA and Britain. The arguments are simple:
Armenia is now too weak militarily compared to Azerbaijan. A big war could end for her with the loss of not only Karabakh, but also her own territory.
A quick targeted operation is now more profitable for Azerbaijan than a drawn-out war. Otherwise, he risks finding himself under Western sanctions. And the laurels of the winner in the short Karabakh war 2020 will lose their shine.
Turkey now has no time for a fire in the South Caucasus. There are too many problems in Syria, the Kurdish regions, Libya, the Black Sea (Ukraine gives surprises every day) and in the Turkish economy itself.
Russia is busy demilitarizing Ukraine.
The USA and Britain are the beneficiaries of the opening of a “second front” for Russia in its underbelly. Georgia was prepared for this role, but its authorities this time resisted and did not allow their country to be turned into a “second Ukraine.”
Pashinyan, it seems, could not resist.
And he took a huge risk. Thousands of angry Armenians gathered in Yerevan on Tuesday, shouting: “Nikol, resign!”
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