What will happen to the ruble exchange rate immediately after New Year’s Eve | December 29, 2023

Let us recall that in 2023 the dollar and euro exchange rates closed at around 90 and 100 rubles, respectively. Prices for Brent oil in the week from December 25 to 31 fluctuated in the range of $77.5-81.4 per barrel.

After the New Year holidays, the foreign exchange market will resume operations on January 3, 2024. However, in the first days of the year, one should expect extremely low liquidity and increased volatility due to the extended holiday until January 8 in Russia, the analyst noted.

In conditions of reduced trading volumes, even small speculative transactions can cause sharp fluctuations in the rates of major currency pairs.

“The most likely range of exchange rates in the first days of trading in January is 87.5 – 94 rubles per dollar, 96.85 – 102.50 rubles per euro and 12.20 – 13.00 rubles per yuan,” noted Vladislav Antonov.

These boundaries were formed in a month and a half. The behavior of the Russian currency in January is difficult to predict, since it is affected by both positive and negative factors.

Pressure factors include:

– ongoing inflation

— geopolitical risks,

— potential reduction in energy prices.

Fundamental support for the ruble is provided through the mandatory sale of export earnings and the authorities’ strict fiscal policy.

“This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an individual investment recommendation.”

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